Cedi expected to end 2025 Strong Despite mild fourth-quarter depreciation — Fitch Solutions

The Ghana cedi, which has recorded an exceptional year of appreciation, is projected to experience a slight depreciation in the final quarter of 2025 but will still close the year on a positive note, according to a new report by international risk analytics firm Fitch Solutions.

The report indicates that the cedi has appreciated by more than 29% against the US dollar in the retail market so far in 2025 — marking one of its strongest performances in recent years and positioning it for a rare year of net gains.

Currently, the local currency trades at around GH¢12.00 to the US dollar at forex bureaus and about GH¢10.92 on the interbank market. Fitch forecasts a modest depreciation of roughly 8% by the end of 2025, with the cedi expected to stabilise around GH¢11.70 per dollar on the interbank market by the close of 2026.

The firm noted that while some weakening is expected, the projected depreciation will be mild compared to previous years of steep volatility.

“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date,” the report stated. “Only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambian kwacha, Nigerian naira, and South African rand is anticipated by the end of 2025.”

Fitch attributed the cedi’s relative stability to sustained investor confidence, a softer US dollar, strong gold prices, and robust interventions by the Bank of Ghana, backed by solid export earnings.

However, the firm cautioned that despite the currency’s strong rebound, long-term gains may be constrained by policy uncertainties and the need to maintain export competitiveness through sustainable reserves.

Fitch Solutions urged policymakers to avoid complacency, stressing that careful management and continued reforms will be key to sustaining the cedi’s resilience in the coming year.