After years of economic turbulence, Ghana’s economy is showing signs of recovery—marked by a strong cedi rebound, improved fiscal balances, and easing inflation. But analysts caution that the gains may prove temporary without addressing long-standing structural weaknesses.

A mid-year review by Emerging Markets (EM) Advisory described the cedi’s 42.6% appreciation against the US dollar in the first half of 2025 as “genuinely unprecedented” in sub-Saharan Africa. The rally has almost erased the depreciation suffered between 2022 and 2024, supported by IMF disbursements, surging gold prices and exports, higher remittances, and central bank intervention.

However, EM Advisory warned that productivity gaps, heavy import dependence, and fiscal pressures remain unresolved. “Currency rallies can be fleeting. Questions linger over how the economy will cope once gold prices normalise or the IMF programme ends,” the report said.


Fiscal performance exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, with a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP—above the 0.4% target—while expenditure came in 14.3% below budget. Stronger revenue mobilisation and spending restraint drove the results.

Yet challenges persist. Customs revenues fell short by GH₵1.6 billion due to the stronger cedi reducing the local value of imports. Meanwhile, the public wage bill exceeded budget by GH₵1.3 billion, reflecting late-2024 recruitment and ongoing payroll inefficiencies, including thousands of unverified or ghost workers.

Debt repayment remains a looming concern, with GH₵20 billion due in 2026 and over GH₵50 billion in 2027, despite recent restructuring efforts.


Recent VAT reforms aim to simplify the system, cut rates, and ease compliance. Measures include abolishing the COVID-19 levy, removing the flat rate scheme, and raising the registration threshold for small businesses. With compliance estimated at just 20%, the review stressed the need for strict enforcement, digital invoicing, and targeted exemptions to avoid driving activity underground.

Government’s arrears—reported at GH₵67 billion as of December 2024—are under audit. Already, GH₵3.6 billion has been rejected and GH₵27.3 billion flagged for validation, with the IMF warning that many claims may lack proper documentation, highlighting weaknesses in public financial management.


The review pointed to capacity deficits in the public service, citing under-budgeting in the energy sector and cases of contractors drawing loans without completing projects.

In banking, government’s GH₵2.45 billion recapitalisation of the National Investment Bank boosted its capital adequacy ratio from negative 53% to positive 23%, safeguarding deposits and jobs. Still, concerns persist over high non-performing loans in the wider sector.


Short-term risks include commodity price swings, a potential cedi reversal, and political spending pressures. Medium-term threats range from rising debt service costs to unresolved energy challenges and climate impacts on agriculture.

“Stabilisation is not the same as transformation,” EM Advisory concluded, urging government to strengthen the Sinking Fund, broaden the tax base, and prioritise high-impact, revenue-generating projects. Without deeper reforms, it warned, Ghana risks falling back into its “familiar boom-bust cycle.”