PwC warns Global crises could disrupt Ghana’s Inflation trend

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Ghana has cautioned that emerging global crises may pose risks to Ghana’s inflation trajectory in the medium term, as supply-side shocks from these events are expected to feed into prices in the coming months.

In its commentary on the February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI), PwC highlighted that disruptions to trade flows across the Sahel region, driven by terrorist activity, are already creating volatility in key food supply chains. This, the firm warned, could elevate inflation expectations.

“Disruptions to regional trade flows – particularly across Sahelian corridors affected by terrorist activity – pose a risk of elevating inflation expectations as key food supply chains become more volatile,” PwC noted. The firm also flagged ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a potential driver of upward pressure on energy-related components of the inflation basket, which could interrupt the disinflation trend Ghana has experienced over the past 14 months.

According to data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), headline inflation fell for the 14th consecutive month, dropping from 3.8 percent in January to 3.3 percent in February 2026 – the lowest level since the 2021 CPI rebasing. Month-on-month inflation, however, increased slightly to 0.8 percent from 0.2 percent in January.

The data also suggested that global pressures have eased temporarily, with imported inflation falling to 0.6 percent from 2.0 percent in January, indicating that global price shocks are not currently transmitting into the domestic economy as strongly as in previous years. Inflation for locally produced items moderated to 4.5 percent, while food inflation slowed to 2.4 percent from 3.9 percent in January. Non-food inflation edged up slightly to 4 percent.

PwC identified housing and utilities as the largest upward contributors to February’s CPI, with year-on-year inflation of 12.6 percent. In contrast, transportation – influenced by lower energy costs – recorded negative inflation of -7.5 percent.

Despite these positive trends, PwC emphasized that regional insecurity crises affecting trade corridors, and global energy tensions, remain the most significant medium-term threats to Ghana’s inflation path. The firm stressed that while these could be temporary, they have the potential to interrupt the sustained disinflationary trend observed since early 2025.

With headline inflation now below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8±2 percent and exchange rate volatility reduced, PwC argued that earlier monetary tightening measures have been effective. The firm suggested that these positive macroeconomic indicators provide a strong case for a further policy rate cut, though the Bank’s decision will consider exchange rate stability, fiscal consolidation, external financing, and the potential impact of emerging supply-side shocks.

PwC concluded that, “At 3.3 percent, inflation is not only anchored but showing sustained stability – supported by both food and non-food categories. This provides the Bank with strong justification to consider a rate cut to support economic activity.”

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on March 15, with a policy rate stance expected at the conclusion of the three-day session on March 18, 2026.