S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook, citing improving economic conditions alongside lingering fiscal and external vulnerabilities.

The agency noted that stronger economic growth and increased export volumes—particularly from gold—have boosted foreign currency reserves, helping to stabilise Ghana’s external position. It also highlighted recent fiscal reforms and tighter expenditure controls, which are expected to keep budget deficits more contained compared to the period leading up to the 2022 debt crisis.

However, S&P warned that Ghana remains exposed to global shocks, especially tensions in the Middle East, which could drive up fuel and transport costs and trigger higher inflation. Such developments, it said, could also raise borrowing costs and dampen investor confidence.

Ghana’s external position has improved significantly, supported by favourable commodity prices and strong export earnings. The country recorded a current account surplus of over $9 billion in 2025, while gross international reserves reached record levels. Nonetheless, S&P cautioned that this progress could reverse if global prices for key exports such as gold, cocoa, and oil decline.

The report also acknowledged progress in Ghana’s debt restructuring programme, noting that the government has completed or reached agreements in principle on nearly all targeted debt. This has eased immediate financing pressures and contributed to greater macroeconomic stability.

Despite these improvements, challenges persist. S&P pointed to high debt servicing costs, which are expected to consume a substantial portion of government revenue in the coming years. It also flagged structural weaknesses in public financial management and the risk of fiscal slippage, particularly during election periods.

While inflation has declined from recent peaks, the agency expects a moderate rise in 2026 due to external pressures. The Ghanaian cedi, however, has shown signs of stabilisation following earlier volatility, supported by improved foreign exchange inflows.

Looking ahead, S&P indicated that Ghana’s rating could be upgraded if the government sustains fiscal discipline, reduces debt burdens, and strengthens external buffers. Conversely, any slowdown in reforms, renewed fiscal slippages, or setbacks in debt restructuring could exert downward pressure on the rating.