Fuel prices to go up over weakened cedi

Ghanaians are expected to pay more for petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) beginning February 1, 2026, as fresh market indicators point to upward adjustments at the pumps.

The latest pricing outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), which  guides decisions across the downstream petroleum sector, projects a significant increase in petroleum product prices driven largely by currency depreciation and renewed volatility on the international oil market.

This development marks the first major projected rise in fuel prices in 2026, following a relatively stable start to the year.

However, industry analysts say worsening exchange rate pressures and rising crude oil benchmarks have combined to push import costs higher, leaving oil marketing companies with limited room to maintain previous price levels.

Cedi Depreciation 

A key factor behind the expected increases is the weakening performance of the Ghanaian cedi since the start of January. COMAC attributes the depreciation to heightened demand for foreign currency, particularly from businesses restocking after the holiday season and multinational firms transferring funds abroad as part of dividend and profit repatriation arrangements.

According to the Bank of Ghana’s January Economic and Financial Data, the cedi depreciated by about 4 percent against the US dollar during the review period.

For the February 1 pricing window specifically, the currency slipped from GH¢10.90 to GH¢10.98, representing a 0.77 percent depreciation against major trading currencies.

Since Ghana relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products, even marginal declines in the local currency significantly raise the cost burden for fuel distributors and marketers.

Petrol, Diesel And LPG Prices Expected To Climb

Based on COMAC’s projections, petrol prices are expected to rise by up to 2.10 percent per litre, pushing pump prices to around GH¢11.48 per litre from February 1.

Diesel is forecast to record a sharper jump, increasing by between 4.00 and 5.10 percent, with a litre projected to sell at approximately GH¢12.77.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), widely used in households across the country, is expected to rise by 0.61 percent, bringing the cost of a kilogram to about GH¢13.50.

These increases are likely to impact transport fares, household energy costs, and general inflationary pressures, particularly as fuel remains a major driver of prices across multiple sectors of the economy.

Rising Global Crude Prices Fuel the Local Outlook

In addition to exchange rate pressures, COMAC notes that global crude oil prices have rebounded sharply in early 2026. During the review period, crude prices surged from about $64 per barrel to nearly $70 per barrel within just two days, reflecting renewed tightening in global supply conditions.

COMAC further reported that crude oil climbed again in early February, rising from around $62.50 per barrel to $67.40 per barrel, despite earlier expectations that global markets could face a supply glut.

The rebound, according to industry assessments, has been supported by disruptions in Kazakhstan’s export flows, tightening global energy market fundamentals, and renewed geopolitical tensions, including fresh US threats toward Iran.

Refined Petroleum Prices Also Rising Worldwide

COMAC explained that the surge in crude oil has also triggered increases in refined petroleum product prices on the international market. Petrol prices rose by 2.12 percent, diesel increased by 6.73 percent, while LPG prices climbed by 3.66 percent during the period under review.

These external price movements directly influence Ghana’s ex-pump pricing structure, as oil marketing companies adjust based on import parity and global benchmark costs.

Competition May Delay Immediate Adjustments

Despite the projected increases, COMAC noted that intense competition within the downstream petroleum sector could compel some oil marketing companies to temporarily keep prices unchanged in order to protect market share.

Petroleum pricing has become increasingly strategic over the past two years, with companies balancing profitability against volumes sold and consumer retention.

Industry sources suggest that some marketers may delay price hikes from February 1, opting instead to observe how dominant players respond before reviewing their own pump prices.

During the last pricing window from January 16 to January 31, COMAC data showed that Zen Petroleum offered the lowest petrol price on the market, selling a litre at GH¢9.94, slightly above the industry “price floor” of GH¢9.80. Zen’s pricing was marginally lower than the discounted rates offered by market leader Star Oil.

Bank of Ghana Assures Commitment to Stability

COMAC also disclosed that it has received assurances from the Bank of Ghana that the central bank remains focused on maintaining price stability while supporting broader economic growth, even as the cedi faces renewed pressures at the start of the year.