IMF retains Ghana’s 4.8% Growth forecast despite Global uncertainty

Ghana’s economy is projected to remain resilient in 2026 despite a difficult global environment, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintaining its growth forecast at 4.8 per cent.

The latest projection, unchanged from the Fund’s October 2025 outlook, places Ghana slightly above the expected 4.6 per cent growth for Sub-Saharan Africa.

This comes against the backdrop of a downward revision in global growth to 3.1 per cent, driven largely by rising energy costs and persistent geopolitical tensions.

According to the IMF, Ghana’s outlook is supported by stronger-than-expected performance under its economic reform programme, backed by fiscal discipline and improving macroeconomic stability.

The forecast follows an estimated 6 per cent economic expansion in 2025, largely fueled by growth in the non-oil sector and increased agricultural output.

Inflation has declined significantly, dropping to 3.2 per cent as of March 2026. However, the Fund anticipates a gradual rise to 7.9 per cent by the end of the year as price levels stabilise.

Despite this expected increase, the easing inflation trend provides room for the Bank of Ghana to take a more measured approach to monetary policy decisions.

While external risks remain, including fluctuations in global commodity prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, Ghana’s economic outlook is considered relatively stable.

The IMF, however, warned that rising costs, reduced external financing, and existing vulnerabilities could increase risks to poverty and food security. It emphasised that sustaining growth will require continued fiscal discipline and well-targeted social protection measures.