2024 elections: Mahama leads in new poll with 51.1%, Bawumia at 37.3%

A recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that, the presidential candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Dramani Mahama (JDM) is cruising to victory.

He is said to have taken the lead over Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

The poll shows Mahama capturing 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia trails with 37.3%.

Independent candidates, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) account for 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively, with other candidates collectively receiving 1.3%.

In an unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama’s advantage continues, with 49.3% support compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.

The poll also highlights a troubling trend of voter apathy within the NPP, as 16% of potential non-voters identify as supporters of the ruling party, while only 3% of NDC supporters fall into this category.

Additionally, floating voters and those who declined to disclose their party affiliation make up 38% and 39% of non-voters, respectively, signalling a critical challenge for the NPP.

Among floating voters, Mahama holds a substantial 31-point lead over Bawumia (54% to 23%), and he also leads by 18 points among those who do not disclose their party affiliations.

Remarkably, Mahama has gained ground among first-time voters, achieving a 46% to 38% advantage over Bawumia, marking a significant shift from the July 2024 poll where both candidates were tied.

Conversely, Bawumia has seen a decline in support from Muslim voters, a crucial demographic for his campaign, losing nearly 4% since July.

The poll reveals that 70% of those who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 remain loyal to Bawumia, yet 19% have shifted their allegiance to Mahama.

In key regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters, respectively, have switched their support to Mahama. Regionally, Mahama is now leading in 12 regions, including Bono, while Bawumia holds sway in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.

The emergence of independent candidates, Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten is complicating Bawumia’s standing, especially in the Eastern and Ashanti regions.

In the Ashanti region, where the NPP targets 85% support, Bawumia currently holds 66%, while Mahama garners 22%, and Bediako and Kyeremanten capture 7% and 4%, respectively.

This fragmentation of support poses potential challenges for the ruling party as it gears up for the elections.

The poll also emphasises key issues shaping voter sentiment, with the economy, jobs, and education as primary concerns. A significant 70% of respondents identified the economy as their foremost issue, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).

Additionally, 62% of voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, with discontent particularly strong among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%).

In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters feel that the country is on the right track.