Ghana's economy for the second quarter of 2021, is estimated to have increased by 3.9 percent compared to the same period last year.
When seasonally adjusted, Ghana's real GDP increased by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, that is, April to June. It witnessed 0.1 percentage point higher than what was recorded in quarter one of the year.
According to Government Statistician, Prof. Samuel Anim, the Services Sector influenced the growth recorded for the period.
Below are details of the GDP growth for the second quarter:
● Ghana provisional real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 3.9% in quarter two (April to June) of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.
● When seasonally adjusted, Ghana real GDP increased by 0.9% in quarter two (April to June) of 2021; 0.1 percentage point higher than what was recorded in quarter one (January to March) of 2021.
● The Trade, Repair of Vehicles, House Goods Activities, Manufacturing, Information & Communication, Health & Social Works and Crops sub-sectors were the main drivers of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021.
● Main sub-sectors that expanded in quarter two of 2021 are:
o Water Supply, Sewerage, Water Management & Remediation Activities (20.5%);
o Information & Communication (20.0%);
o Hotel & Restaurants (18.7%);
o Real Estate (13.8%);
o Fishing (12.7%);
o Forestry & Logging (11.9%);
o Education (11.8%);
o Trade, Repair of Vehicles, House Goods (10.7%);
o Electricity (9.5%);
o Manufacturing (8.3%).
● Sub-sector that contracted in quarter two of 2021 is:
o Mining & Quarrying (-18.9%).
Things you need to note about this release
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are three approaches used to measure GDP: the output approach, the expenditure approach, and the income approach.
This Statistical Release contains independently compiled quarterly estimates of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 2nd quarter of 2021 using the production approach. The estimates are based on the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA), the International Standard Industrial Classification (Rev.4) published by the United Nations, and the Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources and Compilation prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This means that the methodology, concepts, and classifications are in accordance with the guidelines and recommendations of an internationally agreed system of national accounts. The estimates of real GDP are expressed in terms of the base year, 2013.
The Annual GDP estimates are derived independent of the quarterly estimates. Short-term indicators are used to estimate the quarterly GDP (see IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources and Compilation) and benchmarked to the annual GDP.
Current or Nominal GDP is the value of final goods and services evaluated at current quarter prices.
Constant or Real GDP is the value of final goods and services evaluated at base year prices. In Ghana, the base year is 2013. By using the prices from the base-year (or holding prices constant over time), we eliminate the impact of rising prices on GDP in order to get a measure of “Real” economic activity.
The quarterly value added, and GDP estimates have been seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects from time series to reveal non-seasonal features. This process is to provide a clearer view of short-term movements and trends and to allow early identification of turning points.
While the majority of revisions are made to the four most recent quarters of the series, there is no restriction on when an estimate of the quarterly series for a given period can be revised. The main causes of revisions are as follows:
a) Incorporation of additional and improved data: Most revisions reflect the incorporation of a wider range of data. In particular, some data that were not available at the release date are incorporated through revisions into subsequent releases.
b) Reconciliation of quarterly and annual measures: The process of reconciling the quarterly measures with the annual measures can lead to further revisions. The quarterly measures of these series are based on a smaller range of data than the annual measures.
c) The rebased provisional quarterly GDP estimates may be revised further and finalized based on the availability of additional data. The next revision of the quarterly and annual GDP estimates will be done in April 2022.
Quarterly real GDP growth: April to June 2021
Provisional real quarterly gross domestic product (QGDP) growth rate including Oil and Gas, is 3.9% (year on year) in the second quarter of 2021. In the same period of 2020, the growth was -5.7%.
GDP growth rate without oil and gas (Non-Oil GDP) for first quarter 2021 is 5.2% which compares to the same period in 2020 with a growth rate of -5.8%.
The Service sector recorded the highest growth of 11.0% and was followed by the Agriculture sector with a growth of 5.5.0%. The Industry sector contracted by 4.3 percent.
Real quarterly gross domestic product: April to June 2021
The GDP (Including Oil & Gas) estimate at constant 2013 prices for the 2nd quarter of 2021 was GH¢39,162.2 million compared to GH¢37,710.3 million in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
The Non-oil GDP at constant 2013 prices for the 2nd quarter of 2021 was GH¢36,369.9 million compared to GH¢34,580.9 million in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
Nominal quarterly gross domestic product: April to June 2021
The GDP estimate at current prices in purchaser’s value for the 2nd quarter of 2021 was GH¢101,945.7 million compared to GH¢88,470.1 million in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
The Non-oil GDP (GDP without Oil and Gas) estimate at current prices for the 2nd quarter of 2021 was GH¢97,489.6 million compared to GH¢85,661.5 million in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
GDP sectoral shares
The Services sector was the largest sector of the Ghanaian economy in the second quarter of 2021 with a share of 50 percent of GDP at basic prices. The GDP share of Industry and Agriculture were 29 percent and 21 percent respectively.
Seasonally Adjusted GDP
The Provisional quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted Real Gross Domestic Product (including Oil) growth rate for the 2nd quarter of 2021 was 0.9 percent.
For the 2nd quarter of 2021, the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth rates (see Table 2) were as follows:
Within the Agriculture sector, the Crops sub-sector grew by 0.9 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021, compared to 1.4 percent in the 1st quarter of 2021. The Livestock subsector also grew by 1.2 percent compared to 1.3 percent recorded in the 1st quarter of 2021. The Forestry and Logging subsector grew by 2.9 percent compared to 0.1 percent recorded in the 1st quarter of 2021. The Fishing sub-sector expanded by 3.1 percent compared to a contraction of 0.9 percent recorded in the 1st quarter of 2021 Within the Industry sector, the Construction sub-sector recorded a 0.6 percent growth in the 2nd quarter of 2021, compared to a 3.5 percent expansion recorded in the 1st quarter of 2021. Manufacturing sub-sector grew by 1.8 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021 compared to a growth of 2.0 percent in the 1st quarter of 2021. Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management & Remediation Activities sub-sector grew by 5.1 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021, compared to a growth of 1.6 percent in the 1st quarter of 2021. The Mining & Quarrying sub-sector continued to contract by 4.8 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021, from -2.6 percent recorded in the 1st quarter of 2021 In the Services sector, Real Estate grew by 1.7 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021 compared with 2.4 percent growth in 2021Q1. Information & Communication expanded by 4.3 percent growth rate in the 2nd quarter of 2021, same as recorded in 1st quarter of 2021. The Trade; Repair of Vehicles, Household Goods also grew to 2.2 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021 compared to a growth of 0.8 percent in the 1st quarter of 2021. Compared to 1st quarter of 2021, the Public Administration & Defense, Social Security grew by 2.7 percent in 2021Q2. Hotel & Restaurants and Professional, Administrative & Support activities which contracted in the 1st quarter of 2021, expanded by 1.8 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2021.