Ghana’s Oil Output falls nearly 50% as government pursues major investments — KPMG/UNDP Report

Ghana’s crude oil production has dropped by almost half since its peak, raising serious concerns about fiscal stability and revenue performance in the energy sector, a new joint report by KPMG and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has revealed.

The report, titled “2026 Budget Highlights,” shows that national crude output has declined from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to a projected 36 million barrels in 2025. The sharp decline, it noted, has pushed government to initiate an aggressive investment drive to halt the downward trend.

According to the findings, $2 billion has been earmarked for drilling 20 new wells across the Jubilee and TEN fields—Ghana’s most productive assets. Oil production from the Jubilee Field began in 2010 amid strong investor confidence, which contributed to the country’s peak output of about 195,000 barrels per day in 2019. However, production has consistently dropped since then, reaching less than half of that peak by 2025.

To stabilise output and secure future gas supply, government is rolling out a multi-pronged strategy centred on strategic partnerships with operators. These partnerships are expected to bring in a combined $3.5 billion in new investments into the upstream petroleum sector.

An additional $1.5 billion has been allocated for expansion activities within the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) block.

“The $3.5 billion investment commitment is a strong signal of investor confidence,” the report stated, adding that major international firms such as Shell have expressed renewed interest in Ghana’s upstream sector and could contribute capital and advanced technology.

The report also highlighted a major upcoming development: the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) is set to begin drilling in the onshore Volta Basin in October 2026, potentially opening a new frontier for oil exploration in the country.

To support these investments, the report stressed the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, regulatory transparency, and predictable fiscal policies. It urged government to fast-track regulatory reforms, including the introduction of competitive and transparent licensing processes for oil blocks.

KPMG and UNDP further emphasised strengthening local content and skills training to ensure Ghanaians take full advantage of new job and technology transfer opportunities. They also recommended aligning all upcoming projects with global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards to meet sustainability and climate commitments.