GNPC targets 2026 onshore drilling, faces scrutiny from civil society groups

Ghana is set to drill its first onshore exploration well in the Voltaian Basin in October 2026, as part of the government’s effort to revive the country’s declining oil production. The announcement was made by Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson during the presentation of the 2026 Budget Statement.

The move comes in the context of a significant drop in national crude output, which has fallen from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to a projected 36 million barrels in 2026, placing considerable pressure on petroleum revenues and policymakers.

Dr Forson emphasised that the government is taking “decisive action” to reverse the downward trend. He highlighted the Voltaian Basin, a vast 104,000-square-kilometre area, as central to the strategy, noting that early assessments show promise. “The prospects look good to expand Ghana’s hydrocarbon production,” he stated. He also revealed that the country’s upstream regulatory and fiscal regime is under review to make the sector more competitive and transparent.

However, the announcement has reignited debate, particularly among civil society groups that have closely monitored the Voltaian Basin project. Critics argue that shifting timelines, lack of visible progress, and substantial prior investment raise concerns about the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation’s (GNPC) preparedness.

GNPC had previously indicated that drilling would begin in 2025, with the basin described as a potential “game-changer” capable of unlocking significant hydrocarbon reserves. Yet Kodzo Yoatse, Policy Lead on Oil and Conventional Energy at the Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), expressed skepticism. “GNPC has not given us anything to instil confidence about the Voltaian Basin’s prospects,” he said. “The timeline for drilling keeps shifting. Over US$120 million has been spent with nothing concrete to show.”

Yoatse recommends that idle petroleum blocks be reclaimed and re-allocated to qualified exploration companies to demonstrate genuine commitment to reversing production decline.

Beyond GNPC’s readiness, some experts question the basin’s near-term feasibility. The Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC) notes that even if drilling starts in 2026, commercial production from the Voltaian Basin is unlikely before 2033–2036. “While a long-term strategic asset, it cannot address current fiscal pressures,” stated Dr Elvis Twumasi, ASEC’s Director of Research and Innovation.

ASEC also criticised GNPC for failing to remit US$488.8 million in Explorco lifting proceeds to the Petroleum Holding Fund (PHF), highlighting breaches in transparency and statutory obligations. Additional concerns include questionable expenditure, such as GH¢4.9 million spent on a golf clubhouse, which underscore the need for stronger financial discipline and oversight.

Civil society groups maintain that accountability and proper management of national petroleum resources must precede further development of the Voltaian Basin to ensure the project truly contributes to Ghana’s economic and energy goals.