Ghana’s inflation rate is expected to decline sharply to 16.0% in June 2025, driven by a stronger cedi, falling energy prices, and easing transport costs, according to analysis by IC Research.

In its latest update, IC Research cited favourable exchange rate movements and a significant drop in commercial transport fares as major factors behind the anticipated 240 basis point fall in headline inflation.

“The June 2025 CPI data window recorded a 29.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year appreciation of the cedi against the US dollar. This exerted downward pressure on prices of imported goods, especially petroleum products and transport fares,” the report stated.

A 15% cut in commercial transport fares, which took effect earlier in the month, is also expected to help keep inflation in check, with spillover effects anticipated across other expenditure categories.

IC Research also noted that food disinflation could be sustained in June, with declining transport costs easing the price pressure previously observed on vegetables and tubers.

“We forecast a 240 basis points decline in the June 2025 annual inflation to 16.0%, with a month-on-month rate of 0.8%,” the report added.

Inflation Trends in 2025
As of May 2025, Ghana’s headline inflation had already declined to 18.4%, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop. This brings the cumulative reduction in annual inflation to 540 basis points in the first five months of the year—compared to a marginal 10 basis point dip over the same period in 2024.

The faster pace of disinflation is attributed to:

A strong base effect from 2024

Appreciating cedi

Lower petroleum prices

Food Inflation
Food inflation continued its downward trend, falling by 220 basis points to 22.8% in May 2025. The largest impact came from the vegetables and tubers category, which saw a steep 10.3 percentage point decline to 24.0% year-on-year.

However, on a month-on-month basis, vegetable prices rose by 2.4%, influenced by the seasonal effects of the ongoing planting season.

Non-Food Inflation
Non-food inflation declined more significantly, dropping 350 basis points to 14.4% year-on-year. This marks the seventh consecutive month of decline in the category, reinforcing the disinflation trend.