Ghana’s recent credit rating upgrade by Fitch Ratings has sparked sharp reactions from the Minority Caucus in Parliament, who, while acknowledging the positive signal, warned against complacency and raised serious concerns about the credibility of the 2025 budget presented by the Mahama-led administration.

In a press statement released on Tuesday, the Minority emphasized that the Fitch upgrade to B- with positive outlook, which improved Ghana’s sovereign outlook, is primarily the result of progress made under the country’s debt restructuring programme.

The restructuring has significantly lowered the medium- to long-term debt service obligations, thereby reducing Ghana’s risk of default.

The Caucus highlighted that Ghana’s current account performance had also contributed to the upgrade.

The country posted a current account surplus of 4.3% of GDP in 2024—a record high. While Fitch projects the surplus to narrow to 1.1% by 2026, it still considers this an encouraging macroeconomic signal.

Additionally, declining inflation trends—from 44% in 2022 to 23% in 2024 and further down to 18% in May 2025—were noted as favourable indicators.

However, the Minority warned that despite these improvements, Ghana is unlikely to meet its own inflation target of 11% for 2025.

According to Fitch’s projections, end-of-year inflation is likely to hover around 15%, missing the official target by four percentage points.

Further criticism was leveled at the 2025 budget’s projected fiscal performance.

The government aims to achieve a primary balance surplus of 1.5% on a commitment basis.
However, Fitch estimates that the country will only manage a 0.5% surplus—falling a full percentage point short.

This shortfall, the Minority argued, threatens the credibility of Ghana’s performance under the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

The Minority also expressed concern about the government’s revenue mobilization strategy.

Citing Fitch’s assessment, the statement noted that the debt service-to-revenue ratio, a key metric under the IMF programme, is projected to deteriorate from 25% in 2024 to 26% in both 2025 and 2026.

This, the Caucus stressed, reflects growing doubts about the government’s ability to sustain fiscal discipline and generate the needed revenue to meet its obligations.

The statement took the opportunity to underscore what it described as vindication of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) claims that the economic foundation handed over to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) administration was strong.

The Fitch report, in its view, affirms the resilience of Ghana’s economy through the restructuring period, with the country recording 5.7% growth in 2024. That said, Fitch forecasts slower growth rates of 4% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.

The Minority concluded by warning that Ghana’s economic progress could be undermined if the risks flagged in the Fitch report are not urgently addressed.

They urged the Mahama administration to take decisive action to restore confidence in the country’s fiscal framework, especially under the watchful eye of international financial institutions and investors.