NASA reports that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, the highest probability ever recorded. Scientists are exploring multiple strategies to prevent a potential impact.

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Assessing the Risk


NASA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.1% probability of colliding with Earth—the highest risk percentage ever recorded for an asteroid. The space rock, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in length, is currently projected to potentially impact Earth on December 22, 2032.

Despite the concerning forecast, experts stress that these calculations are based on preliminary data and are likely to be refined in the coming months. Scientists are working on multiple planetary defense strategies to ensure Earth remains protected from the possibility of an impact.

Can Earth Prevent an Asteroid Collision?


In the event that asteroid 2024 YR4 remains on a collision course with Earth, planetary defense experts have assured that we are not defenseless.

"Even if the probability reaches 100%, we have strategies to prevent an impact," said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Planetary Defense Office.

One of the most promising approaches is the kinetic impactor technique, tested successfully by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022. In this mission, a spacecraft deliberately collided with the asteroid Dimorphos, altering its orbit. ESA’s Hera mission, launched last October, is now studying the long-term effects of this impact.

Scientists believe a similar method could be used to deflect 2024 YR4 before it gets too close to Earth.

Alternative Deflection Techniques


Aside from direct collisions, space agencies are exploring less aggressive methods to change the asteroid’s trajectory. These include:

  • Gravitational Tug: A large spacecraft could be placed near the asteroid, using its gravitational pull to gradually shift the space rock’s orbit.

  • Ion Beam Deflection: A spacecraft could emit a continuous stream of charged particles, subtly altering the asteroid’s course over time.

  • Yarkovsky Effect Manipulation: Scientists have proposed painting one side of the asteroid white to alter how it absorbs and radiates solar energy, gradually nudging it off course.

Last-Resort Solutions: Nuclear and Laser Deflection


While nuclear explosions in space are considered a last resort, some scientists have studied their feasibility. In laboratory simulations, detonating a nuclear device near an asteroid caused surface vaporization, pushing it away. However, this method is only considered for larger asteroids, over a kilometer in diameter, which could cause catastrophic damage.

Another proposal involves focusing high-powered laser beams on the asteroid’s surface, vaporizing one side and generating thrust to steer it off course. While theoretically possible, this technique is not among the primary solutions under serious study.

What Happens If the Asteroid Hits?


If deflection efforts fail, scientists will work on impact mitigation strategies. While 2024 YR4 is not large enough to cause global devastation, it could cause significant damage if it strikes a populated area.

Experts believe that, should the impact become inevitable, evacuation plans would be implemented for at-risk regions. Advanced tracking systems would allow scientists to predict the exact impact zone, giving authorities time to prepare.

 Time Is on Our Side


With over seven years until the predicted potential impact date of December 22, 2032, scientists have ample time to refine calculations and develop mitigation strategies.

While asteroid 2024 YR4 presents the highest recorded collision probability to date, the likelihood of it missing Earth remains nearly 97%. Researchers remain confident that, if action is required, humanity has the tools and technology to prevent a disaster.