Senyo Hosi praises Economic managers for strengthening the cedi

Economic policy analyst Senyo Hosi has praised the John Mahama government and Ghana’s economic managers for an unexpected and well-executed turnaround in the Ghana cedi during 2025, rejecting claims that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was the main driver of the currency’s sharp appreciation.

Responding to recent commentary on the cedi’s gains against major currencies, Hosi said the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana deserve credit for stabilising the economy and coordinating fiscal and monetary policy in a manner not seen in decades.

While acknowledging the IMF programme’s role in preventing further economic deterioration, he argued it could not logically explain the forecast-defying appreciation of the cedi. “The IMF helped us stop the bleeding. But a handrail keeps you from falling; it does not lift you up the staircase,” Hosi said.

Hosi’s remarks come amid suggestions on some media platforms that up to 55 percent of the cedi’s 2025 appreciation was linked to debt relief and the IMF programme, a view associated with policy advocate Bright Simons. He dismissed these claims as confusing stabilisation with actual propulsion.

According to Hosi, by the start of 2025, the key elements of the IMF programme and debt restructuring were already public knowledge and fully priced into the foreign exchange market. Consequently, they could not have triggered the sudden 29 percent appreciation of the cedi, which strengthened from about 14.7 cedis to the dollar to near 10.45 at its peak. He described this result as a major forecasting error rather than confirmation of IMF influence.

Drawing on financial theory, Hosi explained that exchange rates react most strongly to new and unexpected information, not policies already known to markets. He also noted the absence of significant exchange-rate movements following IMF announcements and disbursements in July 2025 as further evidence that the Fund was not the main driver.

Instead, Hosi credited the cedi’s gains to a combination of domestic policy measures and favourable external factors. Domestically, he highlighted improved coordination between fiscal authorities and the central bank, alongside operational innovations involving the GoldBod, which boosted official gold export flows. Externally, a rally in global gold prices helped increase foreign exchange inflows, allowing for more effective market interventions.

“The cooperation and discipline we saw from our economic managers in 2025 was exceptional,” he said, emphasizing that Ghanaian policymakers had demonstrated that local expertise could produce results without always relying on external validation.

While commending the achievements, Hosi cautioned against complacency, echoing Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiamah’s warning that currency strength is not permanent without a productive, competitive, and disciplined real economy. “These gains are real, but they are not yet structural,” he said, urging ongoing reforms to sustain stability over the long term.

Hosi concluded by calling for humility and honesty in public policy debates, stressing the importance of giving credit where it is due. “Our people have shown they have brains too,” he said. “The schooling is working.”