Fuel Price relief rollback could push up June inflation, Government statistician warns
Ghana’s inflation outlook for June is facing renewed upward pressure following the partial withdrawal of the government’s fuel price relief programme, with Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu cautioning that the policy change could begin to feed into consumer prices in the coming weeks.
The warning comes after headline inflation increased for the second consecutive month, rising to 3.7 percent in May 2026 from 3.4 percent in April, raising concerns that the country’s sustained disinflation trend may be slowing.
Speaking during the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Dr. Iddrisu said government interventions in fuel pricing had played a key role in containing inflationary pressures by helping to keep transport costs stable despite fluctuations in food prices.
“While fuel prices have stayed broadly where they were, this is likely influenced by the suspension of selected margins and levies on ex-pump petroleum prices effective April 16, 2026,” he explained.
However, he warned that the inflation outlook could shift following the government’s decision to partially reverse the relief measures.
“The partial withdrawal of the suspension effective May 16, 2026, will likely affect June inflation numbers,” Dr. Iddrisu stated.
The government introduced temporary fuel price support measures in April to cushion consumers and businesses from rising global oil prices. Under the programme, government absorbed GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol.
The intervention was subsequently scaled back in May, with diesel support reduced to GH¢1.07 per litre. Economists and market observers expect the adjustment to increase transportation and distribution costs, which could filter through to the prices of goods and services.
The development coincides with calls by some private transport operators for a 20 percent increase in transport fares, citing rising operational expenses and declining profit margins.
Analysts warn that any increase in transport fares could have a broader impact on the economy by raising the cost of moving people and goods, potentially adding further pressure to inflation in June.
Dr. Iddrisu noted that transport costs have been a key factor in helping to moderate inflation in recent months, offsetting sharp increases in the prices of some food items.
“Even as one staple like tomatoes surged, the lower cost of moving people and goods helped keep overall inflation in check,” he said.
He emphasised that the headline inflation figure does not always reflect the diverse experiences of households across the country.
“This is exactly why we look beyond a single headline figure. At the same moment, a household can feel a sharp pinch at the vegetable store and modest relief at the pump and at the lorry station,” he added.
Despite the recent uptick, inflation remains significantly lower than the 18.4 percent recorded in May 2025. Nevertheless, economists and policymakers will be closely monitoring the June inflation data to determine whether fuel-related cost pressures and possible transport fare increases begin to reverse some of the gains achieved in restoring price stability.
The June inflation figures are expected to provide an important indication of whether the recent rise in inflation is temporary or signals the start of a broader shift in Ghana’s inflation trajectory.
Comments (0)