IES warns Ghana’s Crude Oil output has declined for six straight years

By Prince Antwi July 14, 2026

Ghana’s crude oil production has continued its downward trend for the sixth consecutive year, dropping from a record 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).

The report, titled Ghana’s Crude Oil Production Decline, 2020–2026: A Critical Analysis of Driving Factors, Energy Security Implications and Policy Directions for Reversal, forecasts that production will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, representing an additional 6.7 per cent decline.

According to the IES, Ghana experienced steady growth in crude oil production after commercial production began at the Jubilee Field in 2010, with output reaching its highest level in 2019. However, production has consistently declined every year since then.

The report shows that output decreased from 66.93 million barrels in 2020 to 55.05 million barrels in 2021, 51.76 million barrels in 2022, 48.25 million barrels in 2023, 48.24 million barrels in 2024, before falling sharply to 37.30 million barrels in 2025.

The Institute described the prolonged decline as a structural challenge rather than a temporary setback, warning that it could have serious implications for Ghana’s economy and long-term energy security.

IES attributed the declining production to a combination of factors, including the natural depletion of mature oil fields, limited replacement reserves, operational challenges and insufficient investment in upstream petroleum activities.

The report also pointed to the absence of any new Petroleum Agreement since 2018, noting that Ghana’s oil production continues to rely on three ageing offshore fields — Jubilee, Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) and Sankofa Gye Nyame (SGN).

It added that production disruptions at the Jubilee Field, including a scheduled maintenance shutdown in 2025, contributed significantly to last year’s decline.

According to the IES, both the Ministry of Finance’s 2026 Budget Statement and the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition have acknowledged the falling production levels, with average daily crude oil output declining from approximately 200,000 barrels in 2019 to about 150,000 barrels in 2025.

The think tank cautioned that continued declines in oil production could reduce government revenue, affect fuel supply for thermal power generation, limit funding for Ghana’s energy transition agenda and weaken the country’s overall energy security.

To address the situation, the IES recommended the resumption of competitive petroleum licensing rounds, increased investment in drilling new wells, strengthening the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), improving reservoir management practices and ensuring the effective implementation of government policies aimed at increasing crude oil production.