The African Development Bank (AfDB) has forecast that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, driven by strong performance in the mining sector, continued fiscal consolidation, and a high-interest-rate environment. This projection was released in the Bank’s latest African Economic Outlook report, unveiled during its Annual Meetings in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

The report offers a comprehensive analysis of economic trends across Africa, covering GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balances, debt sustainability, and external accounts. For West Africa, it highlights both progress and potential risks to macroeconomic stability.

Looking ahead, the AfDB anticipates that Ghana’s GDP growth will rise further to 4.8% in 2026, citing improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals.

Mixed Forecasts Across Institutions

The AfDB’s outlook contrasts slightly with projections from other institutions. Ghana’s 2025 national budget, presented by Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson, estimates a GDP growth rate of 4.0%, with non-oil GDP growth pegged at 4.8%.

The World Bank, in its April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, projects a more modest 3.9% growth for 2025, increasing to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% by 2027. However, it cautions that climate variability—particularly its impact on cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—could pose a major downside risk.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Regional Economic Outlook published during the Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., revised Ghana’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.0%, aligning with the government’s own figures. The IMF also expects growth to reach 4.8% in 2026.

Inflation Expectations Diverge

On inflation, the AfDB projects a higher end-year rate of 15.4% in 2025—above the Ministry of Finance’s forecast of 11.9% and the Bank of Ghana’s 12% estimate. While this marks a decline from April 2025’s inflation rate of 21%, it remains well above official targets.

The IMF is even more cautious, projecting inflation at 17.5% for 2025, indicating a likely overshoot of the government’s inflation control ambitions. However, the AfDB expects inflation to fall to 9% by 2026, aided by tight monetary policy, a more stable currency, and easing food prices.

Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Outlook

Ghana’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and further to 3.0% in 2026, reflecting stronger fiscal discipline and enhanced public financial management. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also projected to decline to 66.4% in 2025, thanks to ongoing debt restructuring and improved domestic revenue mobilisation.

On the external front, the current account balance is forecast to remain positive—at 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026—boosted by solid oil and gold export earnings.

Risks to Economic Stability

Despite the overall optimism, the AfDB cautions that significant downside risks remain. These include climate-related disruptions, potential policy reversals, and global economic uncertainties such as U.S. tariff increases. The Bank stressed that continued adherence to fiscal reforms and prudent macroeconomic policies will be critical to safeguarding Ghana’s economic recovery.

As Ghana charts its post-crisis economic path, experts say maintaining reform momentum and strengthening resilience to external shocks will be key to achieving sustainable growth through 2026 and beyond.