The Bank of Ghana is expected to reduce its policy rate further by 150 basis points, bringing it down to 14%.

According to IC Research, the real policy rate currently stands at 12.2%, based on the latest disinflation and the nominal policy rate of 15.5%.

“While this indicates significant room for a deeper cut, we believe the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will exercise caution amid volatile geopolitical risks, particularly with surging energy prices and a stronger US Dollar,” IC Research noted.

The firm added, “We expect the authorities to maintain a preference for a double-digit real policy rate with a rate-cut bias, projecting a reduction of between 100–200 basis points, with a leaning towards a 150bps cut to 14.0%.”

The MPC of the Bank of Ghana previously lowered the policy rate to 15.5% in January 2026 from 18% to stimulate economic growth and respond to declining inflation.

In its January decision, the MPC highlighted that macroeconomic conditions had improved significantly, supported by a tight monetary policy stance, fiscal consolidation, and a substantial accumulation of reserves.

Inflation has fallen faster than expected, remaining well-anchored, while economic growth has strengthened, creating room for a measured policy rate adjustment.