The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has reduced both the size and frequency of its foreign exchange interventions, following heavy activity in the second quarter of 2025 that drew concern from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

During that period, the central bank injected more than US$2.0 billion into the forex market. The IMF cautioned that such interventions should be handled carefully to avoid undermining market stability.

Data shows that by July 29, 2025, total forex forward sales for the month had dropped to US$822.8 million—53.6% lower than in June. The BoG was notably absent from the market on July 25 and July 29, marking its first withdrawal since April.

The reduced presence led to tighter dollar supply, with the Ghana cedi depreciating by 1.7% against the US dollar after the IMF Board’s approval of Ghana’s latest program.

According to IC Research, the shift signals the BoG’s attempt to prevent a prolonged overvaluation of the cedi and to narrow arbitrage gaps between market segments. The firm projects that the interbank exchange rate will rise moderately to between GH¢10.45 and GH¢11.45 per dollar (midpoint: GH¢10.95) by the end of 2025.

It further noted that the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indicates a modest corrective depreciation ahead, following a sharp appreciation in the first half of the year. The REER index dropped 31.3% in the first six months of 2025, reaching 92.7 points in June.

The appreciation of the cedi has also created parallel forex pricing, with interbank rates averaging around GH¢10 to the dollar while retail market rates hover near GH¢12.

Analysts warn that unless carefully managed, the divergence could widen, though they believe BoG’s gradual pullback will support a more balanced and less disruptive adjustment in the forex market.