The Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr Riverson Oppong, has cautioned that prolonged tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran could drive up petroleum product prices in Ghana as global oil markets respond to the instability.

In an interview with the Business and Financial Times (B&FT) in Accra, Dr Oppong sought to calm fears of potential fuel shortages but stressed that sustained geopolitical uncertainty would inevitably translate into higher costs for consumers.

“The impact on Ghana will obviously be reflected in rising prices. There will certainly be a surge,” he said.

He explained that Ghana imports more than 60 percent of its petroleum product needs, making the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in international crude prices despite some level of domestic production.

Addressing concerns about supply, Dr Oppong noted that the operationalisation of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery—the largest in the region—should help prevent shortages of refined products.

“Availability and accessibility may not be a problem for us, but affordability is the big question,” he remarked.

His comments come as the first pricing window for March recorded marginal fuel price increases. The bi-weekly pricing window, which opened on March 1 and closes on March 15, is projected to see petrol prices rise by 2.89 percent to about GH¢12.04 per litre, while diesel is expected to increase by 0.86 percent to roughly GH¢13.22 per litre.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), however, is forecast to decline slightly to GH¢13.87 per kilogram—marking the first reduction this year.

According to COMAC, the upward adjustments are largely driven by rising crude oil and refined product prices on the international market.

The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also confirmed that the price floor for the March 1–15 window has been raised. Petrol now sells at a minimum of GH¢10.46 per litre, up from GH¢10.24, while diesel has increased to GH¢11.42 per litre—representing hikes of about 2.1 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.

Industry analysts warn that the current increases may only be preliminary, with steeper hikes possible later in March if hostilities persist.

Brent crude surged by more than 10 percent in early trading on March 2, reaching US$80.11 per barrel. Market watchers say prices could approach US$90 per barrel if tensions escalate further.

Concerns have also mounted over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of global crude oil supplies pass. Any disruption to this route could significantly tighten supply and push prices higher.

Dr Oppong highlighted additional risks to the global energy market, noting reports of production disruptions in parts of the Middle East, which could constrain supply and increase demand for diesel and petrol.

Supporting his concerns, the Chief Executive Officer of the African Sustainable Energy Centre, Justice Ohene-Akoto, warned that multiple price hikes could occur in the coming weeks if the situation deteriorates further.

While acknowledging that the Dangote Refinery could serve as a regional buffer, he cautioned that neighbouring countries should not expect discounted prices. “Premium prices will still apply,” he stated.

Dr Oppong also lamented Ghana’s limited refining and storage capacity, describing expanded local infrastructure as a potential game-changer that could enhance supply security and boost foreign exchange earnings.

He urged government to consider temporary tax relief measures—such as suspending or reducing the Price Stabilisation and Recovery Levy (PSRL)—to cushion consumers from the impact of rising fuel costs.

“If prices increase, the government should consider removing certain levies or implementing measures to ease the burden on consumers,” he concluded.