Ghana faces a potential electricity generation crisis if additional fuel supplies do not arrive before June 4, 2025. This concern arises following the recent delivery of 450,000 barrels of light crude oil on May 19, which is expected to sustain operations for no more than 16 days under current conditions.

Research conducted by Joynews indicates that this projection is informed by benchmarks established during a 2022 energy supply disruption. At that time, the Ministry of Energy reported that 550,000 barrels of light crude oil were necessary to maintain 850 MW of thermal power generation for a duration of 20 days.

By comparison, the current supply of 450,000 barrels is anticipated to support operations for approximately 16 days. However, two critical factors could significantly reduce this timeframe:

1. Severity of Gas Supply Disruption: Should the ongoing gas shortages escalate, power plants may consume the crude oil at an accelerated rate, potentially depleting the supply in as little as 12 to 14 days. Conversely, a less severe disruption could extend the operational period slightly.

2. Increased Electricity Demand: Ghana's electricity consumption has surged, rising from 22,478 GWh in 2022 to a projected 25,836 GWh in 2025—a 14% increase. This heightened demand will further accelerate fuel consumption, making it improbable that the current stock will last the full 16 days under typical operating conditions.

The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Of Ghana's 15 thermal plants, which collectively account for 70% of the national electricity supply, eight rely on light crude oil when gas is unavailable. If additional shipments do not arrive by June 4, the country may face unavoidable load shedding.

Moreover, the reliance on light crude oil, which is more expensive than natural gas, will impose a financial burden on the energy sector. The government must secure both increased fuel volumes and timely funding to prevent service disruptions.

In response to the current situation, stakeholders are advocating for prompt measures to restore gas supply lines and maintain continuity in thermal generation.

Additionally, they emphasize the need for more strategic procurement planning to mitigate potential risks in the future