Ghana’s cedi is coming under renewed seasonal pressure as heightened first-quarter foreign exchange demand begins to weigh on the currency.

According to Databank Research, the local currency showed mixed performance over the past two weeks. In the interbank market, the cedi weakened by 0.91 percent against the US dollar, closing at a midrate of GHS 10.98. It also depreciated against the pound and euro, losing 1.31 percent and 1.08 percent, respectively.

In contrast, the cedi displayed relative strength in the retail market, appreciating 1.71 percent against the dollar to GHS 11.70, while recording modest gains against the pound and euro.

Databank attributes the recent weakness to typical first-quarter dynamics, as importers increase dollar purchases to restock inventories. The cedi’s 4 percent depreciation in January reflects this seasonal trend, with sustained importer demand expected to maintain mild pressure on the currency in the near term.

Despite these pressures, Ghana’s external buffers remain supportive. Healthy international reserves, combined with elevated gold prices, provide the Bank of Ghana with room to intervene selectively and prevent sharp currency swings. Databank forecasts the USD/GHS pair to trade within a GHS 10.95–GHS 11.10 range over the next two weeks.

Across the region, Nigeria’s naira strengthened by 5.82 percent to close at NGN 1,365.69 per dollar, supported by central bank interventions, improved dollar inflows, and easing speculative pressures. Analysts expect the naira to trade between NGN 1,350 and NGN 1,370 in the coming week.

The broader Sub-Saharan African currency landscape remains mixed, reflecting differing levels of central bank support, reserve positions, and external demand pressures.

For businesses and investors, the immediate focus remains on importer-driven FX demand and the Bank of Ghana’s ability to smooth volatility. While seasonal pressures may continue through the first quarter, supportive reserve levels and strong gold earnings are expected to help anchor expectations and limit excessive depreciation.

Corporates with foreign currency exposure may need to manage liquidity closely as the market navigates the typical Q1 dollar demand cycle.