NDC 2028 Flagbearer race evenly split with no run away leader - APL survey

Latest survey by the Africa Policy Lens (APL) on the race for who becomes the NDC's next flagbearer for the 2028 election has revealed a very close contest between national chairman of the party Asiedu Nketia and Chief of Staff Julius Debrah.

The survey, conducted in all 276 constituencies nationwide among NDC faithful, showed a very close call between the two, with Asiedu Nketia polling 31.9% while Julius Debrah polled 30.1%, a situation which the APL described as "near-even".

"Current support levels show a near-even division between the two leading candidates," the APL said in its latest report.

"Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia leads with 31.9%, while Hon. Julius Debrah follows closely with 30.1%. This narrow margin of less than two percentage points indicates that the race is not only competitive but also structurally balanced at the top."

"While both candidates have built strong bases, neither has been able to break away from the pack or consolidate a dominant coalition. The support landscape is therefore polarized but not settled."

In another aspect of the survey, which sought the views of respondents ''if elections were held today," the APL said the same pattern of close contest emerged.

"Respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, the same pattern emerged: Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia secured 32.7%, while Hon. Julius Debrah obtained 30.9%."

"The consistency between general support and immediate voting intention suggests that voter preferences are firm and well-defined, with little evidence of volatility or swing."

"The race remains locked, with both candidates maintaining stable constituencies but failing to expand significantly beyond them. This reinforces the conclusion that no candidate currently commands a winning majority."

Meanwhile, other contenders, especially Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu and Finance Minister, Ato Forson also battled it in what can be called the second tier of the contest. Haruna Iddrisu polled 17.9% while Ato Forson polled 13.1%.

Vice President Professor Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang followed with 3. 6%, Foreign Minister, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa at 1.0%, with other unnamed candidates combining to poll 2.5%.