NASA raises concern over asteroid 2024 YR4, now twice as likely to strike the Moon than before. While Earth is safe, scientists say a lunar collision could offer rare research opportunities.

NASA Sounds Alarm as Asteroid 2024 YR4 Edges Closer to Lunar Impact


The Moon is facing a rare cosmic threat as scientists at NASA have warned that asteroid 2024 YR4—previously thought to be of minor concern—has seen a sharp rise in the probability of colliding with the lunar surface. While initial fears centred around the asteroid striking Earth, attention has now shifted to our only natural satellite.

When asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024, using telescopes in the Chilean desert, it was given a negligible 0.004% chance of impacting Earth by 2032. However, new data suggests that the probability of it hitting the Moon has increased significantly, jumping from 1.7% to 3.8%.

The Moon is in Danger: How Real is the Threat?


Although a 3.8% chance may seem modest, the rapid increase has caught the attention of astronomers worldwide. NASA confirmed the revised risk assessment after analysing data gathered by advanced observatories, including the powerful James Webb Space Telescope. The recalculation has not raised any alarm for Earth, but the Moon—so often overlooked in these scenarios—has become the unexpected focus.

Experts emphasise that even if a collision does occur, it would not disturb the Moon's orbit or pose a secondary threat to Earth. Still, the potential event is stirring interest in the scientific community for a different reason altogether.

A Scientific Goldmine: Moon Collision Could Offer Rare Insight


A lunar impact from asteroid 2024 YR4, while improbable, could provide scientists with a unique opportunity to observe a natural celestial collision in real time.

“This would be a great experiment and a perfect opportunity,” said Professor Mark Burchell, Space Science professor at the University of Kent. He believes that witnessing such a rare event could help deepen our understanding of planetary defence systems and the Moon’s geological makeup.

NASA has announced that the James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid again next month to collect more refined data on its trajectory and composition.

Looking Ahead: Monitoring the Skies

The Moon is in danger—but science stands ready
As asteroid 2024 YR4 continues its silent journey through space, all eyes will remain fixed on its path. While the risk of lunar impact remains low, the scenario presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the global scientific community. Whether the Moon escapes unscathed or becomes the backdrop for a rare cosmic event, the situation underlines the importance of constant vigilance in tracking near-Earth objects and understanding their potential consequences.