Databank forecasts Ghana’s inflation could fall below 5% in July

By Prince Antwi July 7, 2026

Ghana’s inflation rate is expected to decline in July 2026, with projections suggesting it could fall below the 5.3 percent recorded in June.

According to the latest outlook by Databank Research, inflation is likely to moderate to between 4.6 percent and 5.0 percent, supported by improved food supply conditions and easing fuel prices.

The research firm said seasonal factors ahead of the August harvest are expected to boost the availability of food products, helping to ease price pressures in major markets across the country.

Databank also identified lower petroleum prices as a key factor that could contribute to the expected decline in inflation. In addition, favourable base effects from July 2025, when consumer prices rose at a faster pace, are expected to make this year’s inflation figures appear comparatively lower.

The report noted that the anticipated slowdown is being driven largely by month-specific developments rather than a broader shift in inflation trends, indicating that price movements remain highly influenced by changes in food supply and energy costs.

The forecast follows an increase in Ghana’s inflation rate to 5.3 percent in June, up from 3.7 percent in May, marking the third consecutive monthly rise this year.

According to Databank, the June increase was fuelled by higher transportation and utility costs, shortages of selected food items, and rising prices in the services sector.

The report noted that non-food inflation climbed significantly from 4.1 percent to 6.3 percent year-on-year, driven largely by persistent increases in petroleum prices and utility tariffs.

It also cited higher prices for staple foods, including tomatoes and fresh fish, as additional contributors to the June inflation surge.

Should Databank’s forecast prove accurate, July would mark the first decline in inflation since the recent upward trend began, providing some relief for households and businesses ahead of the country’s main harvest season.