Oil price surge, Middle East tensions threaten Ghana’s 2026 economic outlook

By Prince Antwi July 20, 2026

Ghana’s economic outlook for 2026 is facing fresh external pressures due to rising crude oil prices and increased shipping costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Standard Bank has revised its forecast for Ghana’s current account surplus downward by about $1 billion, mainly due to the expected increase in petroleum import costs.

The adjustment highlights Ghana’s exposure to global energy market shocks, particularly because the country remains a net importer of crude oil despite being Africa’s leading gold producer.

According to the bank, petroleum imports currently account for about 29 per cent of Ghana’s total goods imports when oil prices are around $65 per barrel. However, that share could rise significantly if global crude prices climb further to between $90 and $95 per barrel.

Standard Bank analyst Jibran Qureishi said the country’s dependence on imported fuel had forced the bank to reassess its current account projections.

“We still import a lot more oil than we export. This has prompted us to re-look at our current account surplus position. We had initially thought that Ghana could print a surplus of about $5 billion for 2026, but we do now believe that this could reduce by about a billion dollars,” he said.

Despite the downgrade, the bank expects Ghana to maintain a current account surplus, meaning the country is unlikely to face an external deficit even with the pressure from higher oil prices.

Standard Bank noted that Ghana’s relatively limited dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains provides some protection against the full impact of the crisis.

Only about six per cent of Ghana’s fertiliser imports come from the United Arab Emirates, with most supplies sourced from countries such as Russia and Italy. The country’s cocoa exports are also expected to face minimal disruption from developments in the region.

However, crude oil remains a major concern because it is difficult to replace in the short term.

Cedi faces pressure amid forex challenges

The foreign exchange market has also come under pressure, with Standard Bank estimating that Ghana currently faces a dollar supply backlog of about $1 billion.

The cedi has weakened, trading around GH¢11.65 to GH¢11.70 per US dollar on the spot market, reflecting tight foreign currency availability.

The bank expects the official exchange rate to move closer to the GH¢12 per dollar mark before recovering as new foreign exchange liquidity measures take effect.

Standard Bank said structural reforms will be necessary to improve stability in the forex market.

The Bank of Ghana is currently transitioning from its existing foreign exchange auction system to a new 15-day funded forward mechanism managed by the Gold Board.

The new system will operate using the central bank’s reference rate with a flat 0.05 per cent fee in cedis. The policy is aimed at improving access to foreign exchange by directing liquidity from artisanal gold producers into the wider market.

Mr Qureishi explained that the current auction system encourages aggressive bidding and does not provide equal access to all market participants.

He said the new arrangement could reduce volatility, limit excessive bidding pressure and improve foreign exchange availability for businesses.

BoG likely to pause rate cuts

The Bank of Ghana recently reduced its monetary policy rate by 150 basis points to 14 per cent amid the early stages of the Middle East crisis.

However, Standard Bank expects the central bank to maintain a cautious approach and suspend further rate reductions due to rising inflation risks from higher fuel and food prices.

Mr Qureishi projected that inflation could rise into the high single digits or low double digits before the end of the year, making a pause in monetary easing necessary.

He said the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to maintain a neutral stance for the rest of the year, with the possibility of a more restrictive approach if inflation pressures persist.

Debt repayments pose additional challenge

Standard Bank also raised concerns about Ghana’s increasing external debt repayment obligations.

External debt amortisation is expected to rise from $960 million in 2025 to $2.3 billion in 2026, before increasing further to $3.2 billion in 2027.

The bank warned that these payments could place pressure on foreign exchange reserves and limit government’s fiscal flexibility.

Although Ghana’s foreign reserves stood at about $13.9 billion as of April 2026, Standard Bank said maintaining strong economic discipline will be critical in managing future obligations.

The bank expects Ghana could return to commercial borrowing through syndicated loans or a Eurobond issuance after the conclusion of the IMF programme.

Mr Qureishi said the government’s biggest challenge will be restoring investor confidence ahead of the 2028 elections.

“The authorities have to now prove to the investment community, and this will be the litmus test between now and the election year of 2028, that they are completely out of the ICU and completely at home. Ghana has a fiscal credibility deficit, and it takes years to restore that,” he said.