The Chief Executive Officer of Dalex Finance, Joe Jackson, has cautioned that the Ghanaian cedi could face renewed pressure if the country fails to address significant leakages within its export value chain.

Speaking at the Chartered Institute of Marketing, Ghana (CIMG) “Evening with Joe Jackson” event in Accra, themed “Ananse Stories About Ghana’s Economy,” he challenged conventional thinking about the causes of currency instability.

According to Jackson, the cedi’s long-standing weakness is often wrongly attributed to high import levels. Instead, he argued that the real problem lies in Ghana’s inability to retain enough value from its exports.

He explained that although the country exports large volumes, much of the revenue is lost through profit repatriation, debt servicing, service imports, and limited local participation in key industries. This, he said, reduces the foreign exchange available to support the cedi.

“We can export all we like, but if more than half of the value is lost, what remains will not help us. Increasing export volumes alone will not strengthen the cedi if we continue to retain less than half of the value,” he stated.

Jackson acknowledged the cedi’s recent appreciation—from about GH¢15–GH¢17 to roughly GH¢11 against major currencies—but warned that the gains are fragile and could easily be reversed if structural challenges are not addressed.

“As surely as night follows day, if we don’t fix this and continue believing that ‘Ananse story,’ we will see those gains reversed,” he cautioned.

He stressed that Ghana’s economic challenges are not just about policy decisions but also about how the economy is understood and interpreted.

“The problem is not only policy; it is how we interpret the economy,” he noted.

Jackson further rejected the widely held view that imports or weak exports are the primary drivers of currency depreciation, pointing out that Ghana has often recorded trade surpluses—highlighting a disconnect between trade performance and currency stability.

“The cedi issue is less about import appetite and more about weak domestic retention of export value,” he explained.

On economic growth, Jackson questioned the emphasis on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as the main drivers. While acknowledging their role in job creation, he argued that most SMEs operate at subsistence levels and lack the scale to significantly transform the economy.

“If SME programmes alone created growth, Ghana would be an economic superpower by now,” he remarked.

Drawing lessons from countries like South Korea and Singapore, he emphasised that sustainable growth is typically driven by a smaller number of strong, globally competitive firms.

He warned that without building and scaling indigenous companies, Ghana risks remaining marginal in its own economy.

“Until Ghana develops companies that own, control, and scale value, we will remain tenants in our own economy,” he said.

Jackson called for a strategic shift toward developing national champions, increasing local participation in key sectors, mobilising domestic capital, and moving up the value chain.

He concluded by stressing that misdiagnosing the problem leads to ineffective solutions. “We are solving the wrong problems,” he said.

The event drew policymakers, business leaders, and finance professionals, many of whom described the lecture as a timely call to rethink Ghana’s economic strategy—highlighting that the future of the cedi depends not just on exports, but on how much value the country retains from them.